Stocks to Fulfill Those New Year's Resolutions part 2

Spend More Time with Family

Even when things at their workplace are relatively stable, many people view the start of a new year as a chance to rearrange priorities in order to spend more time with their families. That can be done on the cheap by staying home more frequently to play games and by volunteering time to help coach after-school sports programs. Resolutions might also include plans for family vacations and other outings.

Theme parks such as those run by Walt Disney (DIS) could benefit from such determination, but they're also more vulnerable to consumer pullbacks in the tough economic environment. Disney's theme parks generate about 20% of the company's operating income, according to Jeffrey Logsdon, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets.

David Miller, an analyst at Caris & Co. in Los Angeles, thinks the Wall Street consensus forecast for Disney's profits in fiscal year 2009 is overly pessimistic. "We believe sufficient evidence exists to suggest that Disney will block and tackle against this recession more nimbly that what is currently reflected in the stock price," he wrote in a Dec. 9 research note. Therefore the opportunity to buy shares at less than 12 times fiscal 2009 earnings is too compelling to ignore, he said.

Miller predicts Disney's theme park revenues will decline 6.4% this year, with attendance expected to drop by 7.4%, and per-person spending to improve by 1%. That translates to a projected 13.2% drop in earnings before interest and taxes—which he believes is conservative, given that Disney hasn't backed off from last August's price hikes at both U.S. parks and hasn't cut park hours, as it did during the 2001 recession.

A weakened U.S. dollar helped Disney attract visitors from overseas for most of 2008, and the recent strengthening of the greenback has taken only a little of that benefit off the table, says Jeffrey Logsdon, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets. He doubts many Europeans will opt against a Disney vacation because of minor swings in the euro's value against the dollar.

The tendency of U.S. consumers to stay closer to home during recession probably works in Disney's favor, says Logsdon. Locals account for about two-thirds of the visitors to Disneyland in California and for between 33% and 40% of visitors to Disney World in Florida, he estimates. Disney is also maintaining traffic through promotions such as offering seven nights in its hotels for the price of four, which should drive bookings at least until the summer, he predicts.
Taking Charge of Finances

After seeing so much of their hard-earned retirement savings evaporate as financial markets collapsed—plus the Bernard Madoff investing scandal—people are considering changing the way they manage their investment portfolios as well. No matter which type of investment or adviser they favored, pain has been widespread. "They're inclined to reevaluate and for that reason there's likely to be a fair amount of movement between [financial services] firms," says Jeffrey Hopson, an analyst at Stifel Nicolaus in St. Louis. But because it's clear that people who handled their own portfolios didn't necessarily do any better, it remains to be seen if there will be greater demand for online brokers, he adds.

Charles Schwab (SCHW) came through the financial debacle pretty well, and is "likely to pick up market share from traditional brokerage firms that have had bad publicity," such as Merrill Lynch, says Hopson.

Besides being fairly low-cost, Schwab's platform is also user-friendly, allowing clients to decide how they want to be serviced. They can choose telephone, Internet, or personal service from a dedicated financial adviser. Plus the company's product line doesn't have a lot of biases—meaning its advisers don't try to push certain investment products on clients. "The quality of the company and the fact they've gotten through this [financial crisis] without any issues, I think, gives people comfort," says Hopson. Another advantage is that Schwab derives less of its revenue from broker fees than many of its peers.

For now, there's no question that many people are glad 2008 is ending. They'll ring in the New Year with hopes of better times and opportunities to come.

Bogoslaw is a reporter for BusinessWeek's Investing channel.